Dear GAP Members,
The following is an explanation of the data study performed by NJC GAP regarding incidence of COVID in NJ by age cohort. This is a summary of that data that you may find extremely useful in the coming months! Please note that all sources are cited on page one of the data and were compiled by our research assistant. Data is current as of Jan 24th. I ENCOURAGE YOU ALL TO READ THIS STUDY CAREFULLY AND CALL ME IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS!
Interpreting Table 1
Column one represents the entire population of that age group.
Column two is total coved cases in that age cohort.
COLUMN THREE represents the percentage of TOTAL COVID cases that that age cohort represents.
Column 4 is total hospitalizations from COVID for that age group. THIS IS HUGELY SIGNIFICANT! Let us just do the math for a second….
If you are aged 5-14 there are 1,083,967 people in your age group. To date 454 of those have been hospitalized…. Therefore Divide 454 by 1,083,967 you get .0004 in other words you have a 99.9996 percent chance of NOT being hospitalized for COVID in that Age GROUP! Statistical Certainty is 99.99 percent. In other words, it is a virtual statistical certainty that even if you get COVID it would not be very serious. Column 5 represents the total percent of hospitalizations that that age group makes up. In other words, it is just 8/10’s of one percent of total COVID Hospitalizations.
Let us look at column 6. 0 Deaths from COVID in that age group. The following two columns represent total deaths in that age cohort for any reason, and the percent that number represents of total deaths in NJ. THE LAST COLUMN SPEAKS FOR ITSELF, 0 COVID related deaths in that age group!
Let’s apply that math to the next two age cohorts.
1,119,963 People aged 19-29 (most of our staff) Total cases 114,815. Total cases requiring Hospitalization 2822. Chances of being hospitalized overall .002 or statistically speaking there is a 99.998 percent chance of not being hospitalized for COVID in that age group. COVID related deaths in that age group 67. Deaths as a percentage of people who got COVID .0005 or in other words there is a 99.9995 percent chance that even if you get COVID, it is extremely unlikely that it will be fatal. (for context, just compare the number of vehicle related deaths in this age group, or drug overdoses)
2,296,617 people aged 30 to 49. Total Cases 185,210, cases requiring hospitalization 10,481. Chances of being hospitalized for COVID overall in that age group are .004 or 99.996 percent chance of NOT being hospitalized for COVID (again Statistical certainty) Total Deaths 742 Overall chance of dying from COVID in this age group .00001 or 99.9998 percent chance that if you are 30 to 49 you will not die of COVID. Deaths as a percentage of those who got COVID in this age group. .004 or 99.996 percent chance that EVEN if you get COVID you will not die.
Clearly as the population ages the virus becomes more serious. Let us note that nearly 60% of all COVID deaths in the state of NJ are in the last two age cohorts 65+, Of the remaining 40% it is likely that 70+ percent of that number had significant risk factors.
IMPORTANT PLEASE READ!
The other charts are self-explanatory, the last two are particularly interesting. Washington state is the only state in the Union that has broken down COVID statistics by industry. We can use it for context for the next chart.
According to our estimates, over 40,000 staff and campers attended camp last summer. There were 15 cases of COVID and 0 fatalities. That represents .0002 of all reported covid cases in the state. In other words, if you send your child to summer camp there is a 99.9998 percent your child will not get COVID (based on 2020 statistics), again statistical certainty. Of the 15 reported cases, 9 were asymptomatic staff and 6 mild camper cases.
Understanding these statistics is critical to our narrative for Summer 2021 for all of our communities, staff, campers parents, regulators and legislators. It also gives a great deal of context to the discussion around having staff be categorized as 1B ahead of other age groups with clearly more defined needs. We do not know yet whether or not we will either be able to or require staff to be vaccinated. WE DO KNOW, however, that key age cohort is significantly affected by the virus as compared to other age cohorts.
It is my understanding that the ACA is compiling similar statistical analysis, as yet I have not seen it for comparison.
Jonathan M. Gold